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Gold edged to a three-month high on Tuesday as weak global manufacturing activity underscored the challenges for the world economy, pushing investors towards safe-haven assets. Increased volatility in other assets has benefitted gold and it could see more gains as global central banks may be forced into easing monetary policy further this year to spur growth.

"Weaker macro numbers out of the US are also increasing the odds that the Fed's December move could have been an outlier, forced onto a central bank that basically had to move after promising to do so for much of the last year,"

Oil Prices drop over 2% as Market loses Faith in Rebound

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US crude oil prices were down more than 2 percent in early trading on Monday as traders increasingly lose faith in a significant market recovery soon and bet on even lower prices. 

US crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 dropped more than 2 percent in early Monday trading to a low of 32.43 per barrel before edging back to USD 32.51 by 0038 GMT (07:38 p.m. EST), still down 65 cents. Global benchmark Brent LCOc1 was down 59 cents, also almost 2 percent, to USD 32.96 per barrel.

 Monday's falls add to an over 10 percent price drop in the first trading week of the year and when Goldman Sachs said oil could hit USD 20, and would see sustained low prices through the first quarter "so producers will move budgets down to reflect USD 40 a barrel oil for 2016." 

In a sign that traders are losing faith in a price rise anytime soon, big speculators have cut their net long positions to fewer than 50,000 contracts or 50 million barrels in the week to last Tuesday, a weekly report from a US government agency that tracks commodity markets activity showed on Friday.

सोना 3 हफ्ते के निचले स्तर पर, क्रूड उछला

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अमेरिकी फेडरल रिजर्व के ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने की आशंका की वजह से सोने में गिरावट देखने को मिली है। सोना 3 हफ्ते के निचले स्तर पर पहुंच गया है। कॉमेक्स पर सोने का भाव 0.08 फीसदी की गिरावट के साथ 1140 डॉलर प्रति औंस पर है। कॉमैक्स पर चांदी 0.53 फीसदी की तेज गिरावट के साथ 15.48 डॉलर प्रति औंस पर कारोबार कर रही है।

वहीं लगातार नौंवे हफ्ते अमेरिकी क्रूड का प्रोडक्शन घटने की वजह से क्रूड में तेजी आई है। नायमैक्स क्रूड में हल्की गिरावट है और ये 0.43 फीसदी की गिरावट के साथ 46 डॉलर प्रति बैरल पर है। ब्रेंट क्रूड 0.15 फीसदी की तेजी के साथ 49 डॉलर प्रति बैरल के ऊपर है। मेटल एक्सचेंज पर कॉपर 0.23 फीसदी की गिरावट के साथ चल रहा है।

कमोडिटी बाजार: सोने, चांदी में बढ़त

अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में आज सोने में बढ़त देखने को मिल रही है। कोमैक्स पर सोना 0.18 फीसदी बढ़त के साथ 1167 डॉलर के आसपास कारोबार कर रहा है। वहीं चांदी 0.30 फीसदी बढ़कर 15 डॉलर के ऊपर नजर आ रही है। इस बीच अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में नायमैक्स पर कच्चा तेल 0.16 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 43 डॉलर के ऊपर नजर आ रहा है। जबकि ब्रेंट क्रूड में गिरावट दिख रही है। और ये 0.03 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ 47 डॉलर के आसपास दिख रहा है।


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NCDEX TURMERIC UPDATE

Turmeric prices gained due to arrival of good quality turmeric at the spot market and expectations of higher demand from upcountry exporters ahead of festival season. 

However upside seen limited amid higher production due to good rains in second part of September in southern peninsula region. 

Good rains in second part of September in southern peninsula region may enhance the turmeric production and quality. 

Turmeric sowing In AP, is recorded at 15,753 hectares increase over last years’ acreage as well normal sowing area progress however in Telangana, the sowing area is lower than the normal sowing area at 40,823 hac compared to 43,470 hac last year. 

At Duggirala market estimated market supply was at 290 quintals, up by 189 quintals from previous day’s arrivals.

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8076-8404.
Turmeric prices gained due to arrival of good quality turmeric at the spot market and expectations of higher demand.
However upside seen limited amid higher production due to good rains in second part of September in southern peninsula region.
NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 745 tonnes to 9374 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8185 rupees remains unchanged at0 rupees.


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NCDEX MAIZE MARKET UPDATE

Maize settled up by 0.81% at 1366 amid short covering tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices. U.S. farmers have finished harvesting 42 percent of this year's bumper corn crop, up from 27 percent a week ago and nearly matching the five-year average of 43 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. In A.P, new crop arrivals with high moisture of around 14-28% have entered the market. Stock of maize in the Government’s warehouse is almost empty. The stock position was around 40,000 MT during the corresponding period of last year. Market is likely to trade slightly weak till the fresh demand for dry material arise.

Trading Ideas:
Maize trading range for the day is 1339-1381.
Maize prices ended with gains amid short covering tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices.
In A.P, new crop arrivals with high moisture of around 14-28% have entered the market.
NCDEX accredited warehouses maize stocks dropped by 297 tonnes to 50 tonnes.
In Nizamabad maize prices dropped -28.4 rupee to end at 1366.6 rupees per 100 kg.


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Mustard seed update

Mustard Seed settled up by 1.87% at 5009 on improved demand and on speculation of lower supply in international and domestic market. The rise in mustard oil demand by major consuming region of eastern India during the festive season is encouraging higher buying by crushing units. Prices were supported on supply worries after Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that from the beginning of Oct till date Rajasthan has not received any rainfall which is likely to affect rabi sowing of rm seed. Prices were also supported on supply worries after USDA reported global rapeseed production forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16 as a slight decrease in area reduces total output to 68.1 million tons.

Trading Ideas:
Rmseed trading range for the day is 4855-5143.
Mustard seed prices gained on improved demand and on speculation of lower supply in international and domestic market.
USDA reported global rapeseed production forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16.
NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 159 tonnes to 48522 tonnes.
In the Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the price gained 71.85 rupee to 5088.4 rupees per 100kgs.


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डॉलर में कमजोरी से कच्चा तेल उछला, सोने में मजबूती

डॉलर में गिरावट की वजह से सोने में तेजी आई है। शुक्रवार को सोना 7 हफ्ते के ऊंचे स्तर पर पहुंच गया था। फिलहाल कॉमेक्स पर सोने के भाव 1.20 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 1155 डॉलर के ऊपर है। जबकि चांदी 0.40 फीसदी की मजबूती के साथ 15 डॉलर के ऊपर दिख रही है। वहीं क्रूड में भी तेजी देखने को मिली है। नायमैक्स पर क्रूड का भाव 1 फीसदी से ज्यादा की उछाल के साथ 50 डॉलर के आसपास और ब्रेंट पर 0.54 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 53 डॉलर के ऊपर नजर आ रहा है।



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क्रूड में उछाल, सोने में सुस्ती

चीन के बाजारों में तेजी और सीरिया में रूस के दखल के बाद कल क्रूड में 3.5 फीसदी तक की उछाल देखी गई। क्रूड के दाम जुलाई के बाद अपनेसबसे ऊंचे स्तर पर पहुंच गए थे। फिलहाल नायमैक्स पर क्रूड 0.50 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 50 डॉलर के आसपास और ब्रेंट 0.14 फीसदी की मजबूती के साथ 54 डॉलर के करीब है।
सितंबर बैठक के फेड मिनट्स आने के बाद सोने में हल्की गिरावट देखने को मिली है। फिलहाल सोना 0.07 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ 1143 डॉलर के आसपास दिख रहा है। वहीं चांदी 0.58 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ 15 डॉलर के आसपास कारोबार कर रही है।


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Gold trading range for the day is 26214-26958

Gold settled down -0.25% at 26555 eased on Wednesday, falling from a two-week high on the firmer dollar while losses were capped on expectations that the US Fed will delay raising interest rates until next year.
Support also seen earlier after the IMF cut its global growth forecasts for a fourth successive year – it now sees worldwide expansion of 3.1 percent this year, the weakest since 2009, with Chinese growth slowing to 6.8 percent this year and 6.3 percent in 2016.
Investors await the release of the minutes from the Fed's September meeting on Thursday for further hints on whether the U.S. central bank could raise short-term interest rates before the end of the year. Last month, the FOMC voted to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at its current rate between zero and 0.25%, marking the 55th consecutive meeting it decided to keep the rate unchanged at a near-zero level.

Gold trading range for the day is 26214-26958.
Gold eased on the firmer dollar while losses were capped on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates until next year.
Fed chair Janet Yellen said it was likely the FOMC could hike rates by the end of the year barring unforeseen events over the next several weeks.
SPDR gold trust holdings dropped by 0.26% i.e. 1.78 tonnes to 687.20 tonnes from 688.98 tonnes.


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REFILE-Oil rebounds, shrugging off U.S. stockpile build

Crude oil futures rose in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off a surprise build in U.S. inventories as some Chinese traders returned following a weeklong National Day holiday period.

U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels to 461 million last week as refineries reduced production and idled capacity. Analysts had expected an increase of 2.2 million barrels.

Both major oil benchmarks rose more than 1 percent on Thursday although trading was thin in the early part of the Asian session. With China open for business trading is likely to more volatile in commodities, ANZ said in a morning note.

U.S. crude was up 50 cents, or 1.05 percent, at $48.31 at 0039 GMT. The contract fell 1.5 percent on Wednesday after three days of gains.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 53 cents, or 1.03 percent, at $51.86 a barrel, after falling 1.1 percent on Wednesday.

With little data out this week, apart from industry and government inventory numbers, and China on holiday for the first three days, the market has focussed on longer-term demand trends that have supported prices.

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PRECIOUS-Gold Well-Did On Expectations Of U.S. Rate Hike Delay

Gold held close to its highest in nearly two weeks on Wednesday, as more sluggish U.S. economic data supported investor views that the Federal Reserve will delay a rate hike to next year.

FUNDAMENTALS

* spot gold= was little changed at $1,147.40 an ounce by 0039 GMT. The metal climbed to $1,151.20 in the previous session, its highest since Sept. 24.

* Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. exports took a hit from an ailing global economy in August and imports from China surged, fuelling the largest expansion of America's trade deficit in five months. ID:nL1N1260PQ

* The data, following a weak nonfarm payrolls report last week, showed the U.S. economy's vulnerabilities to a strong dollar and weak demand in foreign markets, which could impose further caution on the Fed's plans to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. ID:nL1N1260PQ

* Higher rates could dent demand for non-interest-paying gold.

* Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month she expected the U.S. central bank to begin raising rates this year, but weak U.S. economic data since then and caution about the global economy has prompted many to push out expectations.

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Gold futures - weekly outlook: October 5 - 9

Gold rallied on Friday after data showing that the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected last month indicated that interest rates are likely to remain on hold until early next year. Gold for December delivery jumped 2.17% to $1,137.9 in late trade on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, though, gold futures ended down 0.78% after falls earlier in the week amid uncertainty over how soon the U.S. central bank will start to tighten monetary policy. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added just 142,000 jobs last month, well below expectations of the 201,000 expected by economists. August's reading was revised down to 135,000, from the initial reported figure of 173,000. Average hourly earnings were flat month-on-month and the labor force participation rate fell to just 62.4%, down from 62.6% in August. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%, in line with forecasts.

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Precious Metals Gold & Silver Headlines

Gold commodity marked its second weekly gain at the international and domestic markets with the yellow metal riding higher on the back of losses in major equity markets globally and good slide in US Dollar Index (USDX).

Silver too advance this week with the commodity once again rising around 5% and managing a decent outperformance over gold.

Silver owing to its higher beta and speculation that continued set of weaker Chinese economic data would force the government and its central bank to add more stimulus, gained more weight last week to $17 per ounce at Comex.

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International live Metals News and Pricing

Aluminum closed on a weaker note last week declining by around 2.37% to settle at $1941 MT. This downfall could be attributed to the weak global economic cues especially with China lowering its growth forecast for 2015.

Copper climbed up to settle at $6490 MT, up by $39 or 0.6% from its last week’s close. The continuous decline in the metal was put to a halt even though the economic data from China.

Nickel declined by around 1.2% and settled at $16600 MT last week. Fundamentally the metal seemed to have been running out on its appeal for the investors as the cancelled warrants declined more than 6.5% during the week.

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Mcx Market Base Metals Report

Copper futures fell the most in a week on concern that demand is ebbing in China, the world’s top consumer of industrial metals. China’s producer-price index in November fell 2.7 percent from a year earlier, government data showed today. The record 33rd straight decline was the biggest since mid-2013. Copper has dropped 15 percent this year, heading for a consecutive annual decline for the first time since 2001.

Nickel commodity also traded down along with other metals drop and ended the day at $16325 down by 1.30% from its previous close. This morning nickel is seen trading up by $42 from its previous close.

Both lead and zinc traded down but the loss in Zinc was more prominent to lead. Hence, the suggested spread between the two commodities has moved in the favor as expected. We believe still the same scenario could be developed where in continue to sell zinc and buy lead for the day.

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Today Gold and Silver Price in Mcx Market

Gold
Spot gold prices gained by 0.89 percent to $1209.2/oz on Wednesday boosted by firmer oil prices that prompted investors to shuffle positions while largely shrugging off the firm U.S. dollar.

Silver
Spot silver prices declined by 0.2 percent to $16.4/oz in contrary to the gains in gold prices. Strength in the dollar index coupled with decline in copper prices also acted as a negative factor.

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Mcx Market Base Metals Report

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME aprt from Aluminium traded on a negative note yesterday after a surprise fall in U.S. consumer confidence. In addition, investors doubted whether additional monetary policy easing in top metals consumer China would translate into a significant increase in demand.

On the MCX, red metal prices plunged by 1.5 percent and closed at Rs.404/kg on Tuesday.

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Today Silver Price in Mcx Market

MCX Dec Silver futures opened 400 points gap down in yesterday’s sessions, there after traded in a  narrow range with a negative bias. However, today’soutlook remains neutral and further fall is expecting on break of 35650 levels. Downside support seems to be at 34770 levels.

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Mcx Market Base Metals Report

Base Metals
Base metals pack on the LME traded on a mixed note yesterday as news that Japan's economy had slipped into recession weighed on prices. Also, strength in the DX along with weak market sentiments acted as negative factors. Further, output at factories, mines and utilities in the U.S., the second-biggest consumer, fell 0.1 percent in October.

Copper
LME copper prices fell by 0.1 percent yesterday as Japan’s slump into its fourth recession since 2008 threatening the failure of the Abenomics reflation program, raised demand concerns for the red metal. Also, unfavorable industrial data from the US exerted downside pressure on prices. However, expectations of supply deficit coupled with decline in LME stocks cushioned sharp downside. 

On the MCX, red metal prices declined 0.1 percent and closed at Rs.415.1/kg on Monday.

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