Oil up a fraction but near 3-month lows on surplus supply

Oil futures inched up in early Asian trading on Friday, but remained near three-month lows after a persistent supply glut has cut prices by up to 13 percent since the start of November. 

Front-month Brent futures for January climbed 14 cents at USD 44.32 a barrel as of 0227 GMT, following the previous session's 4 cent gain. 

US crude's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were quoted 3 cents higher at USD 40.57 a barrel after settling down 21 cents at USD 40.54 on the previous session USD 44.18 a barrel. 

"Oil markets are really moving range bound...mainly because fundamentals have yet to change," Daniel Ang, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures Pte Ltd, said. 

"Markets are a bit fearful that Iranian oil could come in." Crude futures have already lost around 60 percent of their value since mid-2014 as supply exceeds demand by roughly 0.7 million to 2.5 million barrels per day to create a glut that analysts say will last well into 2016.


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NCDEX MAIZE TRADING NEWS

Maize settled up by 0.84% at 1566 tracking firmness in spot demand despite of flat to trade in overseas prices. 

Maize sourced from Bihar is moving towards Kolkata at Rs.1700 per quintal. Stock of maize could be around 30,000 MT which was around 1,00,000 MT during the corresponding period of last year. In Nizamabad, maize prices ruled slightly lower than last month due to new crop arrival pressure. However, prices are higher than last year due to low stock position. Stock of maize in the Government’s warehouse is less than last year as prices ruled higher than MSP. In the Government’s warehouse, maize stock position is around 10,000 MT which was around 48,000 MT during the corresponding period of last year.

Trading Ideas:
Maize trading range for the day is 1509-1601.
Maize prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand despite of flat to trade in overseas prices.
Stock of maize could be around 30,000 MT which was around 1,00,000 MT during the corresponding period of last year.
NCDEX accredited warehouses maize stocks gained by 407 tonnes to 8142 tonnes.
In Nizamabad maize prices gained 2.3 rupee to end at 1538.2 rupees per 100 kg.
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Naturalgas trading range for the day is 151.4-162.2

Naturalgas settled down -0.95% at 155.9 due to mild weather estimates for the first time in the last three days.

 Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's next storage report on Thursday is expected to show a build of approximately 23 billion cubic feet for the week ending November 13. 

That compared with builds of 49 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 40 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is an increase of 30 billion cubic feet.

 

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at an all-time high of 3.978 trillion cubic feet, almost 10% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 4.5% above the five-year average for this time of year. 

The forecasting models suggest that cold winter weather will turn milder over the next 15 days in several parts of the United States.

Trading Ideas:
Naturalgas trading range for the day is 151.4-162.2.
Natural gas prices ended with losses due to mild weather estimates for the first time in the last three days.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's next storage report on Thursday is expected to show a build of approximately 23 billion cubic feet.
Mild weather has reduced demand for the heating fuel in recent weeks, leading to larger-than-average storage builds.

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MCX ZINC UPDATE

Zinc settled down -1.53% at 99.85 on concerns about faltering demand in China. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping said the world’s second-biggest economy was facing “considerable downward pressure,” while data showed the nation’s home-price recovery slowed in October. 

Elsewhere, the global zinc market moved into a surplus of 22,300 tonnes in September, data from an industry group showed, while the global lead market saw another surplus in September, at 10,800 tonnes. 

Metal prices have fallen to the multi-year month as China’s slowdown cut demand and added to oversupplies. Last week, Nyrstar said it would consider cutting its zinc production which could impact up to 400,000 tonnes per year of zinc concentrates production. However, the news didn’t help prices from falling, as the cuts are yet to be confirmed. Investors see the threat of that supply coming back and seem to not be willing to bet on sustained, higher prices.

Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 97.9-102.9.
Zinc prices ended with losses on concerns about faltering demand in China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said the world’s second-biggest economy was facing “considerable downward pressure.”
Investors see the threat of that supply coming back and seem to not be willing to bet on sustained, higher prices.

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WTI oil futures push higher on bets for U.S. weekly supply drop

West Texas Intermediate oil futures pushed higher on Wednesday, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in eight weeks last week. 

Crude oil for delivery in December on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 40 cents, or 0.98%, to trade at $41.07 a barrel during European morning hours. 

A day earlier, Nymex prices tumbled $1.07, or 2.56%, as mostly bearish outlooks for supply and demand remained on investors' minds.

 The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on oil supplies at 10:30AM ET Wednesday. 

The data was expected to show that crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels last week.

 After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories declined by 482,000 barrels in the week ended November 13. Total U.S. crude inventories are near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years, underlining concerns over a domestic supply glut. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January delivery tacked on 55 cents, or 1.27%, to trade at $44.12 a barrel.



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Today Ncdex Jeera News

Jeera settled up by 0.64% at 15620 as the overall acreage of jeera is likely to decline by 15-20 percent. Moreover, slow progress of sowing at the major producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan keeping prices higher in the spot market. Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted less cumin untill Nov 16, 2015 compared to last year sowing progress. In Gujarat, jeera is planted in 71 per cent less area and has sown 17,400 hectares compared to 60, 900 hectares last year. Geo-political trouble in two major exporting countries – Syria and Turkey – seems to have failed to spice up jeera exports from India due to higher domestic price. According to govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a decline trend compared to last year until September.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 15260-16000.
Jeera prices ended with gains as the overall acreage of jeera is likely to decline by 15-20 percent.
Moreover, slow progress of sowing at the major producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan keeping prices higher in the spot market.
NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 75 tonnes to 6595 tonnes.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 20 rupees to end at 16100 rupee per 100 kg.

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NCDEX TURMERIC MARKET UPDATE

Turmeric settled down by -0.67% at 9856 due to arrival of medium quality turmeric at the spot market. However, some losses were capped by active buying support from stockiest in the spot market in order to meet their future requirement and incidence of diseases found in patches of turmeric fields in the Salem district and in nearby districts of Tamil Nadu along with a yield reduction. Good rains in second part of September in southern peninsula region may enhance the turmeric production and quality but lower area in Telangana may reduce production this year. As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports during April-Aug, 2015 pegged at 38,774 tonnes while the export for the 2014-15 is 90,738 tonnes compared to 78,360 tonnes in FY14. As on latest sowing data, turmeric sowing In AP, is recorded at 15,864 hectares increase over last years’ acreage as well normal sowing area progress however in Telangana, the sowing area is lower than the normal sowing area at 40,823 hac compared to 43,470 hac last year.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9654-10190.
Turmeric prices edged lower due to arrival of medium quality turmeric at the spot market.
However, some losses were capped by active buying support from stockiest in the spot market.
As per data, turmeric exports during April-Aug, 2015 pegged at 38,774 tonnes while the export for the 2014-15 is 90,738 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9742.5 rupees gained 78.85 rupees.

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Copper trading range for the day is 298.3-315.7

Copper settled down -0.36% at 307.75 fell towards fresh six-year lows as traders increased their bets on waning demand in top user China, leading down most other metals that were already struggling under the weight of a strong dollar. Pressure seen as Comex copper speculators increased net short position by 16,499 contracts to 19,398 in the week to Nov. 10, the most bearish bet since mid August. Also Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had fallen 1.1 percent to $4,631 a tonne, after closing just a tad down in the previous session when it plunged to its weakest since May 2009 at $4,590 a tonne. Since lastweek Copper is trading with weakness marking the weakest level since July 2009.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 298.3-315.7.
Copper dropped as the possibility of higher interest rates in the U.S. and slower global economic growth, particularly in China, weighed.
Pressure also seen on prices amid fears of a China-led global economic slowdown spooked traders and rattled sentiment.
Still, ample supplies in China can be seen in bonded copper stocks, which are up to 430,000 tonnes from 360,000 tonnes in late September

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Oil prices edge up on reports of rising inventories, refinery runs

Crude oil prices edged up in early trading on Wednesday following reports of falling stockpiles and rising refinery activity, but analysts said the market would remain under pressure for the rest of the year and into 2016.
Industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) said late on Tuesday that U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week by 482,000 barrels due to lower imports and higher refinery runs.
This helped push front-month U.S. crude futures up 31 cents from their last settlement to $40.98 a barrel at 0120 GMT. The gain followed an over $1 fall during the previous session.
"Any surprising pick-up in refinery utilisation may drive the oil price higher in the short term," ANZ bank said on Wednesday.
Official inventory data is due later on Wednesday from the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Internationally traded Brent crude futures were up 33 cents at $43.90 per barrel.
Despite the slight gains on Wednesday, most analysts expect prices to remain at low levels for the rest of the year and into 2016 as production continues to outpace demand.



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Oil prices up in Asia but gains limited

Oil prices extended gains in Asia on Tuesday but the uptick was capped as investors waited for data on US crude stockpiles expected to further underscore a global supply glut. 

Prices pushed higher yesterday after US-led coalition jets bombed the Islamic State group's oil operations following the deadly attacks on Paris, but analysts said the impact of geopolitical tensions on the oil market is limited. 

At around 0300 GMT (0830 IST), US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in December was up six cents to USD 41.80 and Brent crude for January was trading 11 cents higher at USD 44.67 a barrel. The gains on WTI "are really an exercise to defend the USD 40 handle, where we saw a 4.0 percent rebound after prices touched lows of USD 40.06," said Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG Markets in Singapore.

 "It's difficult to see more upside potential, although we might be getting closer to the equilibrium price level where we meet the sweet spot in the supply and demand equation," he told AFP. He said investors are also cautious ahead of a US Department of Energy report on Wednesday on commercial crude stockpiles in the week ending November 13.



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Oil edges up in high turnover after Paris attacks

Crude oil futures edged up in early trading on Monday following the deadly attacks on Paris, but prices remained near August lows and oil and other commodities are expected to continue under broad pressure in nervous trading.
Front-month U.S. crude futures were trading at $40.91 a barrel at 0121 GMT, up 17 cents from their last close.
Internationally traded Brent was at $44.66 a barrel, up 19 cents.
Both crude benchmarks, which lost 8 percent last week, saw high levels of activity in early trading as commodity traders looked nervously for direction following the deadly attacks in Paris on Friday.
"The big question is, given that there is so much uncertainty with the security issue if borders in Europe start to close, what economic impact could that have? That would probably be a very damaging factor," said Dominic Schnider, analyst at UBS Wealth Management in Hong Kong.
ANZ bank bank said that oil prices would remain under pressure from fundamentals as production remains high despite slowing global economic growth.
"Surprisingly, U.S. drillers are putting rigs back to work in the oil fields after more than two months. Baker Hughes reported the U.S. oil rig count gained by 2 to 574," ANZ bank said on Monday, but added that "we believe the low oil price environment will lead to a decline in drilling activity in the coming weeks."
Oil prices have dropped more than 60 percent since June last year as high production has coincided with an economic slowdown in Asia, particularly in China but also Japan, which slipped back into recession in the third quarter.

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Gold rises on safe-haven bids after Paris attacks

Gold rose on Monday as investors sought safety in the metal following Friday's deadly attacks in Paris and a risk-off sentiment that sent US stock futures lower. 

FUNDAMENTALS

 * Spot gold rose 0.6 percent to USD 1,089.40 an ounce by 0032 GMT.

 * US gold rose 1 percent to a session high of USD 1,091.70. In the first 10 minutes of trade, just under 3,000 lots changed hands, which is equivalent to USD 316 million. 

* That's almost 10 times the 300-lot average for the opening 10 minutes over the past two months, according to Reuters calculations 

* Silver, platinum and palladium all gained about 1 percent each. 

* Multiple attacks in Paris on Friday killed more than 130 people, prompting France to launch air strikes in Syria against Islamic State, which claimed responsibility for the attacks. 

* At a G20 summit in Turkey, US President Barack Obama vowed to step up efforts to eliminate Islamic State and prevent it carrying out attacks like those in Paris. EU leaders urged Russia to focus its military efforts on the radical Islamists.


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