Monday, 7 December 2015

Zinc trading range for the day is 100.9-105.5

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Zinc settled up 0.98% at 103.15 after a report showed U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast in November, boosting demand prospects. The rise in payrolls followed a gain a month earlier that was bigger than previously estimated, while the jobless rate held at a seven-year low, a government report showed. Even before Friday's release, data indicated that the U.S. labor market added more than 200,000 monthly jobs on average this year. 


The unemployment rate in November held steady at 5.0%, while average hourly earnings ticked up by 0.2%. Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong added 10,300 to 323,800 tonnes this past week. Tianjin’s zinc inventories fell only slightly. Shanghai saw zinc inventories grow on large inflows of imported zinc and normal supplies from zinc smelters.

Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 100.9-105.5.
Zinc settled up after a report showed U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast in November, boosting demand prospects.
The rise in payrolls followed a gain a month earlier that was bigger than previously estimated, while the jobless rate held at a seven-year low.
Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 519 tonnes.

Oil to stay low for a long, long time, according to traders

Crude oil slid nearly 3 percent on Friday, as Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) refused to cut production levels despite an ongoing supply glut that has pressed down mightily on prices. And at this point, traders don't appear to see crude oil rising back above USD 50 per barrel any time soon. With the most widely traded Brent crude contract trading just above USD 40, the first futures contract that shows oil above USD 50 expires in the second half of 2017. 


Crude oil for December 2017 delivery (which is more liquid than other far-in-the-future contracts) is trading at just USD 51 per barrel. Futures contracts don't reflect pure expectations of where that commodity will trade; they also reflect things like the costs of storing that commodity, the extra price that users will pay to have access to the commodity for convenience reasons, and prevailing interest rates. 


Yet the crude oil futures curve clearly reflects expectations that the commodity's plunge below USD 50 is not a short-term phenomenon. "The futures curve is telling you that the market is totally oversupplied, and will remain so for a long time," commented Andy Hecht, a commodities trader and the author of How to Make Money with Commodities. The latest bad news for crude came on Friday, when the OPEC decided to take a "wait and watch" approach to production levels, rather than taking action as oil prices continue to plummet. 


That spelled bad news for oil bulls who may have been hoping the oil cartel might signal a policy shift.

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Wednesday, 2 December 2015

Gold inches higher on short covering, weak U.S. data



Gold ticked up for a third session on Wednesday, buoyed by short covering following a dip in the dollar and soft U.S. manufacturing data.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,070.60 an ounce by 0036 GMT, after gaining about 1 percent in the past two sessions.

* U.S. manufacturing contracted in November for the first time in three years, sending the dollar sliding from an 8-1/2 month high reached on Monday.

* The weakness in the dollar provided some support for the greenback-denominated gold and an opportunity for investors to cover short positions. Hedge funds and money managers are holding a record net short position in COMEX gold contracts, data on Monday showed.
* Despite the recent gains, the outlook for gold remains bearish due to a looming U.S. rate hike.
* The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S. rates this month for the first time in nearly a decade.

* Bullion fell to a near-six-year low last month and posted its biggest monthly drop in 2-1/2 years in November as investors believed higher rates could weaken demand for non-interest-paying bullion.

MARKET NEWS
* U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday despite mixed U.S. economic data as treasury yields and the dollar declined while oil prices were choppy ahead of an OPEC meeting later this week.

* The U.S. dollar nursed broad losses early on Wednesday, having retreated from a multi-month peak as bulls got cold feet after U.S. manufacturing contracted in November for the first time in three years.

Why OPEC's plan to balance oil markets backfired

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OPEC's plan to shake up the world oil market may have backfired for now. Just a year ago, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to let market forces determine the price of oil, rather than its own production quotas. 


Conventional thinking then was that the US oil patch would be littered with bankruptcies, and production would collapse. As for Russia, the world's largest energy producer would be forced to cut back production by hundreds of thousands of barrels this year due to both the weakness in oil prices and the impact of Western financial sanctions. 


But the results have turned out very different. Instead of falling off, production increased from where it was last year, and the world is still swimming in oil. The three biggest producers — Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia — have in fact been adding more than 1 million barrels a day more to the market in the past year.

Tuesday, 1 December 2015

Strong dollar, U.S. rate hike prospects keep pressure on gold

Gold clung to small overnight gains on Tuesday but was within striking distance of a nearly six-year low, pressured by a robust dollar and a looming U.S. interest rate hike.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was little changed at $1,064.66 an ounce by 0036 GMT, after gaining 0.5 percent on Monday.
* But the metal wasn't far from $1,052.46, its lowest since Feb. 2010 hit last week. Bullion also posted its biggest monthly drop in 2-1/2 years in November with a 7-percent decline.

* Investors have been positioning for a U.S. rate hike, expected this month at the Federal Reserve's Dec. 15-16 policy meet, by selling non-interest-paying gold.

* The dollar, on the other hand, was on the cusp of reaching its highest in nearly 13 years against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, piling more pressure on greenback-denominated gold.

* A U.S. payrolls report on Friday will be closely watched for clues about the strength of the economy and its impact on the Fed's monetary policy. A strong number, after a surge in job growth in October, could cement expectations that the U.S. central bank will deliver its first hike in almost a decade.

* Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in COMEX gold contracts to the biggest on record in the week to Nov. 24, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Monday.


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DATA AHEAD (GMT)

0100 China NBS Non-mfg PMI Nov

0100 China NBS Manufacturing PMI Nov

0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov

1445 U.S. Markit Mfg PMI Nov

1500 U.S. Construction spending Oct

1500 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov

1830 U.S. Total vehicle sales

U.S. crude ends bearish month with slight losses, ahead of OPEC meeting


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U.S. crude futures inched down on Monday, amid a stronger dollar as investors continue to await Friday's critical OPEC meeting for potential shifts in supply-demand dynamics on global energy markets. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for January delivery traded in a broad range between $41.52 and $42.60 a barrel on Monday, before settling at $41.63, down 0.09 or 0.20% on the day. After jumping above $42 in U.S. morning trading, U.S. crude futures pared earlier gains in the afternoon session reversing territory just before the close. 


Despite a significant rally in late-November, WTI crude futures still closed the month down by roughly 9%. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude wavered between $44.51 and $45.74 a barrel before closing at $44.58, down 0.27 or 0.59% on the session. North Sea brent futures ended the month with a four-day losing skid, closing November down by approximately 8.5%. Meanwhile, the spread between the international and U.S. domestic benchmarks of crude stood at $2.95, below Friday's level of $3.12 at the close of trading.

Monday, 30 November 2015

Gold poised for worst monthly dip in 2-1/2 years

Gold was trading close to its lowest level in nearly six years on Monday and was poised to record its worst monthly slide in 2-1/2 years on prospects of a U.S. interest rate hike this year.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was little changed at $1,057 an ounce by 0028 GMT, after dropping 1.2 percent in the previous trading session. The metal was within striking distance of $1,052.46, the lowest since February 2010, reached on Friday.

* Bullion has lost about 7.5 percent of its value in November, its steepest monthly fall since June 2013.

* The precious metal has fallen out of favour as investors position themselves for the first U.S. rate hike in nearly a decade. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates at its next policy meeting in December.

* Investors believe gold, as a non-interest-paying asset, will take a hit to demand from higher rates as the dollar gains.

* The greenback is already trading near an eight-month high, and further strength could hurt dollar-denominated gold.

* Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.14 percent to 654.80 tonnes on Friday, the lowest since September 2008.

* For trading cues this week, bullion traders would be focussed on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday. A strong jobs report could seal the case for a rate hike at Fed's Dec. 15-16 meeting.

* The European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday will also be eyed for impact on the currency markets. The ECB is widely expected to ease policy.

* Elsewhere, gold miners in Australia, emboldened by a weakening currency, have been increasing production in the face of a global rout in the precious metal, figures released on Sunday showed.

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Friday, 27 November 2015

As gold, platinum prices fall, investors flee metal funds

Here's another sign that investors are getting tetchy about the performance of precious metals such as gold. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's weekly flows report, investors yanked USD 1 billion from precious metals funds in the week to Nov. 25, the chunkiest outflow in 17 weeks. Data this week were based on four days of fund flows as opposed to the normal five due to Thanksgiving holiday, the bank said. 

Precious metal funds typically focus investments in companies that mine, explore or deal in gold and other metals such as silver and platinum, the prices of which have been under the cosh recently. Gold is currently trading at USD 1,072 an ounce, near its lowest level since February 2010. Platinum, meanwhile, is close to a seven-year trough at USD 852 an ounce. Investment-grade bond funds saw outflows of USD 2.6 billion, the heftiest in eight weeks, while investors piled into money market funds, as shown by USD 12 billion of inflows. 

Emerging markets continued to be unloved as well. More money has fled emerging markets equity funds than has entered for the past four weeks, while bond funds have seen outflows in 17 of the past 18 weeks, the data showed.



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Thursday, 26 November 2015

Turmeric Market News

Turmeric settled down -3.99% at 9424 due to lower upcountry demand at the spot market. Though, some losses were capped as traders are keen in buying the quality turmeric, and arrival of quality turmeric from the producing belts. As per latest sowing data from various state departments, turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh was 15,753 hectares, an increase over last year’s acreage but well below the normal sowing area of over 19,000 hectares. In Telangana, turmeric has been planted in 40,823 hectares, about 17 per cent lower than the normal sowing area. Similarly in Maharashtra and Karnataka the acreage dropped by about 25-30 per cent to 7,000 hectares and 12,000 hectares respectively. However, due to better irrigation facilities and sufficient rains, acreage in Tamil Nadu increased by 10-12 per cent compared to last year to over 50,000 hectares. The traders are keen in buying the quality turmeric and so grower brought quality turmeric for sale.


Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9140-9992.
Turmeric prices ended with losses due to lower upcountry demand at the spot market.
Though, some losses were capped as traders are keen in buying the quality turmeric, and arrival of quality turmeric from the producing belts.
NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 526 tonnes to 5043 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9745 rupees dropped -78.8 rupees.

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NCDEX SOYABEAN NEWS

Soyabean settled up 0.34% at 3840 due to drop in production from the major producing belts along with tightening supplies. However, an additional margin of 5 percent on soybean futures imposed by the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) capped some gains in soyabean prices. The USDA has recently estimated Brazil production 2.4% higher versus last year’s. Already the USDA report released on November 10 was bearish for the global market.

The 2015/16 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.40 to $9.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton. The 4th estimate released by the GOI indicated lower than the estimated production for Indian soybean.

Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range for the day is 3730-3932.
Soyabean prices ended with gains due to drop in production from the major producing belts along with tightening supplies.
However, an additional margin of 5 percent on soybean futures imposed by the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) capped some gains.
NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 1122 tonnes to 29332 tonnes.
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -13 rupee to 3733 rupee per 100 kgs.

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