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Soybean witnessed a round of volatility during yesterday’s session. Sharp swings were seen in the range of Rs 3500-3600 per quintal throughout the day to end the session a tad lower. Expectations of rising arrival created the selling pressure when prices touched a recent high of Rs 3597 per quintal after 20 trading sessions. While the bulls speculate about the actual crop loss due to abnormal rains during the pod filling and harvesting stage of the crop. Sharp rupee appreciation dragged soy oil prices lower as traders chose to book profits. We opine that the spot market arrivals will be a key for the price action in the coming days. Spot market activity will remain thin as mandi’s will remain closed due to Amavasya.
Gold prices are expected to go up as uncertainty over budget talks continues which could possibly delay Fed’s decision to wind down its stimulus program as economic growth would likely take a hit if shutdown continues for a long time.
We expect crude oil prices to move up over supply concerns due to storm in the Gulf of Mexico which can support prices.
We expect copper prices to move down as absence of physical demand from China and higher supplies are likely to weigh on prices.
Crude oil dropped on Thursday, recoiling after posting their largest gain in two weeks a day earlier, as worries about the impact of the continuing U.S. government shutdown on demand from the world's largest oil consumer undermined prices.
Crude oil is trading marginally lower on NYMEX today. We expect prices to remain range bound with a negative bias for the day as the U.S. government shutdown continued and concerns about demand from the world's largest oil consumer outweighed news of production shutdowns in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico due to a tropical storm.
A heavy open interest pick up was witnessed in MCX Gold on 1 October 2013. Gold contract for December expiry declined by almost 3% to settle at Rs 29028 per 10 grams. A low of Rs 29815 per 10 grams was tested in Gold. Further correction looks probable in this metal. Continuation of the short build ups will mean that Gold can be dragged near to Rs 28500 in near term. Meanwhile, Rs 29600 and 29900 per 10 grams has become a intermediate resistance for Gold. In Silver, panic selling can derail the prices towards Rs 47000 and 46600 per kg on MCX. The December futures closed at Rs 47902 per kg, down 2.6%.
Industrial metals prices fell to its lowest in aweek yesterday as the U.S. government shutdown reignited concerns about the world's largest economy and sparked a wave of fund and institutional selling, offsetting upbeat U.S. manufacturing data.
Industrial metals prices are trading little changed on international bourses today. We do notexpect any major downside in the prices of metals on account of better economic data fromChina and US and a weak US dollar overseas.
On Tuesday, soybean ended the session on a higher note supported by lower arrivals in the spot market. Lower arrivals during the season have raised concerns over the crop size this year. The actual loss due to abnormal rains can be larger than estimated. Hence, until we see a major pick up in arrivals in the spot markets, bulls will continue to ride over the bears. Soy oil prices gained sharply due to improved demand of oil in the spot market ahead of the festivities. Lower crushing in the last two months has resulted in lower oil availability which is also a supporting factor. The appreciation of the home currency against the dollar will keep the gains limited for the day. Our view in soybean would be supportive for the start but actual arrivals in the spot market and demand progress during the day will drive the sentiments.
Spot gold prices declined around 0.7 percent yesterday on the back of declining trend in SPDR gold holdings. Further, weak global market sentiments on the back of rising concerns regarding US debt ceilingexerted downside pressure on prices.However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as result of weakness in the DX. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of$1322.95/oz and closed at $1326.90/oz in yesterday’s trading session.
In the Indian markets, gold prices traded lower by 1 percent and closed at Rs.30,425/10 gms after touching an intra-day low of Rs.30,160/10 gms on Monday.
Industrial metals prices steadied yesterday as soft dollar and signs of steady global growth offset investors' concerns about the prospect of an imminent U.S. government shutdown.
Industrial metals prices are trading firm on international bourses today. We expect a further rise in the prices of metals on account of better economic data from China. Buying at dips is recommended for the day.
In the domestic markets, soybean futures surged 3 percent on the back of domestic cues and rising hopes of a bullish USDA data. Rains in the growing regions of India have raised concerns over the damage caused to the standing crops. Further the arrivals in the spot markets were limited which further added fuel to prices. Many mandis in Madhya Pradesh will remain closed this week on festivities which means lower spot market availability. However, the supply scenario and the large carryover stock continues to paint a bearish picture for the oilseed. Arrivals will augment from the coming week which means price should eventually cool down. Traders should sell the rallies till Rs 3600 per quintal in the November contract for a downside of Rs 3400 with a stop loss of Rs 3700.
Crude oil dropped to a 2-1/2 month low early on Monday, with markets uncertain on the outlook for demand as a shutdown of U.S. government operations seemed more likely. Crude oil is trading lower on NYMEX today.
We expect prices to trade lower for the day on the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown that could crimp oil demand, while investors also eyed easing tensions in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
Spot gold prices rose by around 1 percent on a weekly basis on the back of decision taken by the Federal Reserve of delayed QE taper during the FOMC meet earlier this week, thereby leading to weakness in the DX.
Mixed global market sentiments and decline in SPDR Gold holdings by 0.5 percent to 905.99 tonnes restricted sharp gain in prices of the yellow metal.
In the Indian markets, gold prices traded higher by 2.9 percent over the week owing to depreciation in the Rupee.
The soybean complex has remained in a tight trading range over a week. The active month November soybean contract have been in a range of Rs 3500 -3420 a quintal. Arrival pressure has not been felt by the markets yet due to weather anomalies and this is holding on to the prices. Once the arrivals begin in full swing we expect soybean prices to witness a sharp downside in prices. On the flipside, the weakening home currency against the dollar will support the sentiments of a bull. What we require is a forceful trigger to over play other factors and drive prices out of the trading range. We expect arrivals to rise from this week which should keep the prices under pressure. For the day traders should sell soybean November contract on rallies to Rs 3500per quintal with a stop loss of Rs 3550 for a target of Rs 3350.
Crude oil fell for a sixth session out of seven on Friday as a U.S.-Russia deal to remove chemical weapons from Syria and talks on resolving tensions over Iran's nuclear plans helped ease fears over Middle East supply risks.
Crude oil is trading lower on NYMEX today. We expect prices to trade lower for the day as tensions over Iran eased and as a potential U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook for demand.