Oil falls to lowest in over 2 mths on swelling inventories

US crude fell for the third session in a row on Friday to trade at the lowest in more than two months, as a relentless climb in oil stockpiles helped trigger a 10 percent drop in prices since the beginning of November. 

Benchmark US crude futures were at USD 41.47 a barrel at 0139 GMT, down 28 cents from Thursday, when prices tumbled 4 percent on the back of rising US stocks. 

The contract was trading at the lowest since Aug 27. Internationally traded Brent crude futures were at USD 44 a barrel, down six cents. "Crude prices dropped to the lowest level in more than two months after US oil stockpiles climbed for a seventh week," ANZ bank said on Friday referring to official US data that saw crude inventories rise by 4.2 million barrels last week against a market expectation of a 1.3 million barrel gain.


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सोने में सुस्ती, कच्चा तेल लुढ़का

अमेरिकी फेड के अगले महीने तक ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने की चिंता में अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में सोना 6 साल के निचले स्तर पर लुढ़क गया था। फिलहाल सोने का भाव 0.16 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 1083 डॉलर के नीचे दिख रहा है। वहीं क्रूड में भी गिरावट देखने को मिल रही है।
नायमैक्स पर कच्चे तेल का भाव 0.47 फीसदी की गिरावट के साथ 42 डॉलर के नीचे और ब्रेंट पर 0.11 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 45 डॉलर के आसपास है। वहीं चांदी हल्की कमजोरी के साथ 15 डॉलर के नीचे दिख रही है। जबकि कॉपर 0.05 फीसदी गिरकर 2 डॉलर के थोड़ा ऊपर दिख रहा है।


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NCDEX CHANA MARKET UPDATE

Chana futures fall on yesterday as speculators trim their positions due to increase in margins for the buy side. 

Chana Dec futures closed lower by 2.81% at Rs. 5,042 per quintal. NCDEX has issued circular regarding increasing in special margin in cash for the buy side by 25 per cent for Chana (CHARJD DEL) Nov 2015, Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 expiry contracts and CHANA2MT Dec 2015 contract with effect from beginning of day Monday, November 9, 2015.
Recently, Maharashtra has exempted stock limit for pulses importers but once it sells the imported pulses to a wholesaler, the limit will become applicable.

 The Agriculture Ministry has sought inter-ministerial comments on a proposal to create a buffer stock of 3.5 lakh tonnes of pulses in 2015-16 crop year. 

The sowing of chickpea has already begun and early trends suggest that acreage under this main pulses crop is set to make a significant gain this season.
Outlook
Chana price may trade sideways to lower due to increased supplies in the spot market from the imported pulse as stock limit is exempted from the importers. However, good demand from the industrial buyers may keep prices higher above Rs. 5,000 levels.

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Oil price to rise only gradually to $80 by 2020

Oil is unlikely to return to USD 80 a barrel before the end of the next decade, despite unprecedented declines in investment, as yearly demand growth struggles to top 1 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

 In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA said it anticipates demand growth under its central scenario will rise annually by some 900,000 barrels per day to 2020, gradually reaching demand of 103.5 million bpd by 2040. 

The drop in oil to around USD 50 a barrel this year LCOc1 has triggered steep cutbacks in production of US shale oil, one of the major contributors to the oversupply that has stripped 50 percent off the price in the last 12 months. 

"Our expectation is to see prices gradually rising to USD 80 around 2020," Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, told Reuters ahead of the release of the report. 

"We estimate this year investments in oil will decline more than 20 percent. But, perhaps even more importantly, this decline will continue next year as well." 

"In the last 25 years, we have never seen two consecutive years where the investments are declining and this may well have implications for the oil market in the years to come."

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Jewellers see flat gold sales this Dhanteras

Gold sales are likely to be flat this Dhanteras, which is considered as an auspicious day to buy precious metals, due to weak economic environment and poor monsoon, jewellers said.

 Jewellers also expect demand to be more inclined towards investment related items like coins, bars after launch of three schemes by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week. Dhanteras, which usually falls two days ahead of the Diwali festival, will be celebrated on Monday this year.

The business during this Dhanteras is likely to be "similar to last year or go up marginally", Anmol Jewellers Founder Ishu Datwawani told PTI. 

"It has been a quieter year, where revenue has dropped. However, for the last two months we are witnessing a spike in sales, but in phases," he said. 

ADVERTISING P N Gadgil Jewellers' CMD Saurabh Gadgil said that compared to last year the market is not so buoyant but the weakness in gold prices will keep up some of the demand.


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NCDEX TIPS : TURMERIC MARKET UPDATE

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Turmeric settled up by 0.52% at 9258 on rising North India demand amidst falling stocks and lack of good quality stocks in mandis. Moreover, reports of lower sowing and water stress conditions in major turmeric growing state also supported the prices. Good rains in second part of September in southern peninsula region may enhance the turmeric production and quality but lower area in Telangana may reduce production this year. Sources also stated that around 40 lakh bags of total stocks have been reported in local mandies. While the total production in the coming year is expected to be around 55-60 lakh bags.
Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.27% to settled at 15140 while prices up 48 rupee, now Turmeric is getting support at 9140 and below same could see a test of 9020 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 9360, a move above could see prices testing 9460.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9020-9460.
Turmeric prices gained on rising North India demand amidst falling stocks and lack of good quality stocks in mandis.
Moreover, reports of lower sowing and water stress conditions in major turmeric growing state also supported the prices.
NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 207 tonnes to 7341 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9028.55 rupees gained 30.85 rupees.

Soyabean trading range for the day is 3958-4080.

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 Soyabean settled up by 0.25% at 4031 as prices seen supported on concerns over lower supply in domestic market and on improvement in demand for the crop in global market. The Soybean Processors Association of India said in its second advance estimates reported that India's total soybean production in 2015 is estimated to fall by 16.09% due to scanty monsoon. Total 2015 soybean production is estimated to be 7.3 million tons compared to 8.7 million tons a year ago, SOPA said. Soybean yield in 2015 is estimated to fell by 16.18% to 667,000 kilograms per hectare compared to 790,000 kilograms per hectare in previous year while sowing area as per government estimates stood at 5.9 million hectare compared to 5.5 million hectare a year ago.

Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range for the day is 3958-4080.
Soyabean prices gained prices seen supported on concerns over lower supply in domestic market
SOPA said in its second advance estimates reported that India's total soybean production in 2015 is estimated to fall by 16.09%.
NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 608 tonnes to 13100 tonnes.
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean remains unchanged at 0 rupee to 3800 rupee per 100 kgs.

U.S. stocks fall with oil, other commodities

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 Wall Street closed lower on Thursday as energy shares were weighed down by falling crude prices while U.S. treasury yields rose and gold prices fell as investors bet U.S. jobs on Friday could help prompt an interest rate hike as soon as next month.

A day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen referred to December as a "live possibility" for a U.S. rate hike, investors were waiting for Friday's key monthly nonfarm payrolls report to gauge if the data is strong enough to prompt a liftoff.
“This is a big piece of data as to what the Fed is looking for. If it shows up weak we may not get a rate hike,” said Scott Colyer, chief executive officer of Advisors Asset Management in Monument, Colorado, adding that stocks could rise on a strong jobs number as it would be a good sign for the economy.
"I think everybody wants them to move or not move. The month-to-month stuff is killing everybody," he said as the market has been whipsawed all year by speculation on timing of a rate hike.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 4.15 points, or 0.02 percent, to 17,863.43, the S&P 500 lost 2.38 points, or 0.11 percent, to 2,099.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 14.74 points, or 0.29 percent, to 5,127.74.
Weak oil prices weighed on energy and a slump in gold and copper dragged on the materials sector. Energy shares led the S&P decline with a 1 percent drop. Interest-rate-sensitive utilities were the next weakest sector, followed by materials .
U.S. two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in 4-1/2 years on Thursday on intensifying expectations for a December Fed liftoff, while long-dated yields also rose on fresh corporate supply.

Gold languishes at 1-month low

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Gold remained under immense selling pressure for the fifth consecutive day at the domestic bullion market here today due to sluggish offtake by stockists and retailers in the face of bearish overseas sentiment. Elsewhere, silver also plummeted sharply following frantic unwinding by speculative traders. Meanwhile Prime Minister Narendra Modi today launched three ambitious schemes to reduce the physical demand for gold and fish out 20,000 tonnes of the precious metal worth USD 800 billion lying idle with households. The Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS), 2015 will offer option to resident Indians to deposit their precious metal and earn an interest of up to 2.5 percent; while under the Sovereign Gold Bonds Scheme, investors can earn an interest rate of 2.75 percent per annum by buying paper bonds. Modi also unveiled the first ever Indian gold coin & bullion, bearing national emblem Ashok Chakra on one side and Mahatma Gandhi's image engraved on the other side. Standard gold (99.5 purity) declined by Rs 75 to end at Rs 25,875 per 10 grams from overnight closing level of Rs 25,950. Pure gold (99.9 purity) also dropped by a similar margin to settle at Rs 26,025 per 10 grams compared to Rs 26,100 on Wednesday. Silver (.999 fineness) plunged by Rs 450 per kg to finish at Rs 36,000 against Rs 36,450 earlier.

Gold falls to 1-month low on heavy selling, global plunge

Gold stretched its losing streak to fourth straight day and shed Rs 325 to close below the significant Rs 26,000 barrier - its lowest level in one month -- at the domestic bullion market here today following heavy unwinding by stockists and speculative traders.

 Domestic sentiment turned extremely bearish and volatile after the yellow-metal plummeted to four-week low in worldwide trade overnight ahead of a slew of comments from Federal Reserve policymakers and release of key US macro data amid rally in global stocks. .

The shiny-metal has been under immense pressure since last week in the wake of unexpectedly hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve as well as fears over an imminent rate rate hike in December. 

Elsewhere, silver also dropped on the back of sluggish demand from industrial users. 

Standard gold (99.5 purity) plunged by Rs 325 to finish at Rs 25,950 per 10 grams from Tuesday's closing level of Rs 26,275. Pure gold (99.9 purity) also slumped by a similar margin of Rs 325 to conclude at Rs 26,100 per 10 grams against Rs 26,425 earlier.

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