Menthaoil Update

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Menthaoil settled up 0.68% at 886.7 supported by improved demand from consuming industries in the spot market. Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too supported the upside. 

Global demand too is expected to rise at these lower levels in coming weeks. The undertone was mixed in the physical markets as participants were unable to receive adequate inputs for price discovery. As per market sources, the overall production is still 70% lower from the previous year of 50,000 tons. Traders had estimated earlier that the total production in the range of 35000-37000 tons for this year, and currently it appears that the average estimate might be reduced to 30000 tons. In fact, huge carryover stocks from the previous year coupled with huge capacity built up of synthetic mint, a substitute of mentha oil, also discouraged farmers to bring less area under mentha plant this year.

Trading Ideas:
Menthaoil trading range for the day is 877-893.4.
Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1033.30 per 1kg. Spot prices is remain unchangeby Rs.0.00/-.
Mentha oil prices gained supported by improved demand from consuming industries in the spot market.
Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too supported the upside.
Global demand too is expected to rise at these lower levels in coming weeks.

Natural gas weekly outlook 11-15 January 2016

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Natural gas prices jumped to an 11-week high on Friday, as updated weather forecasting models pointed to freezing temperatures in the U.S. east coast until the end of the month.

 Bullish speculators are betting on the cool winter weather to increase demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in February surged 9.0 cents, or 3.78%, to close the week at $2.472 per million British thermal units. It earlier rose to $2.495, the most since October 20. 

On Thursday, natural gas rallied 11.5 cents, or 5.07%, after weekly inventory data showed that stockpiles fell more than expected last week.

 The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 113 billion cubic feet, more than expectations for a decline of 99 billion. That compared with a drawdown of 58 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 116 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is a drawdown of 129 billion cubic feet.

Oil Prices drop over 2% as Market loses Faith in Rebound

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US crude oil prices were down more than 2 percent in early trading on Monday as traders increasingly lose faith in a significant market recovery soon and bet on even lower prices. 

US crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 dropped more than 2 percent in early Monday trading to a low of 32.43 per barrel before edging back to USD 32.51 by 0038 GMT (07:38 p.m. EST), still down 65 cents. Global benchmark Brent LCOc1 was down 59 cents, also almost 2 percent, to USD 32.96 per barrel.

 Monday's falls add to an over 10 percent price drop in the first trading week of the year and when Goldman Sachs said oil could hit USD 20, and would see sustained low prices through the first quarter "so producers will move budgets down to reflect USD 40 a barrel oil for 2016." 

In a sign that traders are losing faith in a price rise anytime soon, big speculators have cut their net long positions to fewer than 50,000 contracts or 50 million barrels in the week to last Tuesday, a weekly report from a US government agency that tracks commodity markets activity showed on Friday.

Lead gains on drop in inventories

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Lead prices rose by 0.64 per cent on Friday at the domestic markets due to a decline in lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. 

LME lead stocks fell by 100 metric tonnes to 191175 metric tonnes as on January 8, 2016. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the January 2016 contract, is trading at Rs 110.90 per kg, up by 0.64 per cent, after opening at Rs 109.90, against a previous close of Rs 110.20. .

It touched an intra-day high of Rs 111.25 till the trading. (At 3.30 PM today). Sentiment improved further due to high demand from battery-makers and other consuming industries at the domestic spot market as well as a srong trend at the global market.

Oil prices move away from 12-year lows as China shares rise

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Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday, following China shares higher after Beijing deactivated a circuit breaker mechanism that was blamed for aggravating equity market crashes, although a persistent global crude surplus kept a lid on gains.

Oil prices plunged to 12-year lows in the previous session after China allowed its yuan currency to slip, sending stock markets tumbling globally. Beijing then suspended equities trading as the sharp falls triggered the circuit-breaking mechanism for a second time since its introduction this week.

"As Chinese equity markets started to recover today, the oil prices rallied much altogether," said Kang Yoo-jin, commodities analyst at NH Investment and Securities based in Seoul.

Chinese stocks were boosted as the yuan currency firmed in early trade after the People's Bank of China strengthened its official rate for the first time in nine trading days.

Tracking this, Brent rose 58 cents to $34.33 a barrel by 0327 GMT, near an intraday high of $34.72. It was about $2 away from Thursday's $32.16, a level last seen in 2004.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 64 cents at $33.91 a barrel. In the prior session, it hit its lowest since late 2003 at $32.10.

While oil prices have bounced off lows, market participants remain unwilling to call an end to the slump.

Gold hits nine-week high as China worries hit stocks

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Gold climbed above USD 1,100 an ounce for the first time in nine weeks on Thursday as the dollar fell and investors channelled money into safer assets after worries about the Chinese economy hit global stocks. 

European shares fell sharply after China accelerated the depreciation of the yuan and Asian shares hit a three-month low. China's stock markets were suspended less than half an hour after opening on Thursday after sharp falls triggered a new circuit-breaking mechanism for a second time since its introduction this week. 

Spot gold rose to a nine-week high of USD 1,102.80 an ounce, before paring some gains to trade 0.4 percent higher at USD 1,098.70 by 1249 GMT. US gold futures also jumped for a fourth straight session to a nine-week high of USD 1,102.50. "Gold's strength is probably going to be relatively short term, but there is an upside risk to gold, if the view that China is going to pull the whole world into recession becomes stronger," Citigroup metals strategist David Wilson said.

Gold near 7-week high as stocks retreat

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Gold traded near a seven-week high on Thursday as investors channelled money into the safe-haven metal amid a global stock market rout, worries over the Chinese economy and heightened geopolitical tensions. 

FUNDAMENTALS 

* Spot gold had eased 0.1 percent to USD 1,092.90 an ounce by 0043 GMT. But it wasn't far from USD 1,095.30 reached on Wednesday, its highest since Nov. 16. 

* Gold benefited from the risk-averse sentiment in the market, along with other haven assets such as the Japanese yen and US Treasuries. 

* Stocks across the globe fell on Wednesday to their lowest in nearly three months as a move to weaken China's currency fuelled fears about the strength of the world's second largest economy and as Brent crude hit its lowest since 2004. 

* A raft of data releases from China in coming weeks is likely to show activity continuing to slow, adding to global concerns about the country's economic outlook for 2016. 

* The World Bank on Wednesday cut its global economic growth forecast for 2016, saying the weak performance of major emerging market economies will tamp activity overall, as will anaemic showings from developed countries such as the United States. 

* Adding to those worries was North Korea's announcement that it had successfully tested a powerful nuclear bomb on Wednesday. The move drew threats of further sanctions even though the United States and weapons experts voiced doubts the device was as advanced as the isolated nation claimed.

Brent crude hits new 11-year low as China worries add to glut

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Brent crude prices fell to fresh 11-year lows on Thursday as fresh concerns over China's economy added to huge storage overhangs, near-record production and slowing demand that have already pummeled prices. 

China accelerated the devaluation of the yuan on Thursday, sending currencies across the region reeling and domestic stock markets tumbling, as investors feared the Asian giant was kicking off a virtual trade war against its competitors. Trading on its stock markets was suspended for the rest of the day. 

Global oil prices have crashed 70 percent since mid-2014 as near record output from major producers like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and North America create a ballooning overhang that has left storage tanks around the world struggling to cope with the excess oil

Gold and Silver Mcx Market Updates

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GOLD

Spot gold prices rose by 1.33 percent on Monday to close at $1074.3 per ounce as prices rallied to a four-week high on Monday, buoyed by rising tensions in the Middle East and a sharp drop in stocks following weak Chinese data that fueled concerns over global growth.A 7 percent drop in Chinese shares on Monday halted trading in Shanghai and dragged down stock markets around the world, as investors began 2016 with fresh worries over global growth and sought the safety of bonds and gold.On the MCX, gold prices rose by 1.74 percent to close at Rs.25397 per 10 gms.

SILVAER

Spot silver prices rose by 0.4 percent on Monday to close at $13.9 per ounce. Silver prices rose in tandem with rise in gold prices although all the base metals pack traded lower in yesterday’s trading session.On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.59 percent to close at Rs.33533 per kg.

Mideast oil exports unlikely to face disruptions

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Those anticipating a disruption to oil exports amid heightened political tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran may be disappointed: energy prices are likely to stay weak in the near term, according to a JPMorgan analyst Tuesday.
Oil prices are higher Tuesday in Asian trade after a decline overnight as a slump in global and China equities offset early gains from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that sparked concerns about supply disruptions.

US WTI light sweet crude is up 0.8 percent at 37.05 a barrel while Brent crude is also 0.8 per cent higher at USD 37.53 a barrel.

Crude oil had jumped earlier Monday as Saudi said it would cut diplomatic relations with Iran after protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran earlier Sunday, and the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, predicted "divine vengeance" for the Saudi execution of a major Shiite cleric.